Closing in on Osama

MSNBC:

...

"...in the assessment of former associates, bin Laden is likely worried. A former mujahed companion of bin Laden's named Commander Hamat speculates that the Qaeda leader has added an extra "circle" of security around him in the aftermath of Saddam's capture....

"U.S. intelligence officials agree that trapping the Qaeda leader, who has eluded pursuers for more than a decade, will be much more difficult than getting Saddam. But U.S. manhunting teams in Afghanistan, recently united with similar teams in Iraq under the umbrella of Task Force 121, have actually come close to nailing their quarries on several occasions, sources say. They are also using, in some cases, similar techniques. NEWSWEEK has learned that software used to track wanted Iraqis is also being used to piece together and identify weaknesses in the ethnic, family and tribal links of bin Laden's network, according to intelligence analysts and company officials. The software, called Analyst's Notebook, was developed by i2 Inc., a Springfield, Va., company. Analyst's Notebook allows investigators to turn huge volumes of data into actionable intelligence, creating charts of complex networks by identifying, for example, frequent phone calls between members. The same program traced the "love bug" computer virus of 2000 to an obscure hacker in the Philippines and has been used to nab serial killers, said Chuck Izzo, an i2 spokesman.

"Even Zabihullah says that bin Laden had a close call not long ago. He says the terror chieftain and his protective entourage scurried into the bushes when a U.S. aircraft streaked overhead as they were walking along a mountain trail. The plane did not see them. Another Taliban fighter who calls himself Assadullah Zarafat says that several months ago, U.S. and Afghan forces brushed by Mullah Omar in Uruzgan province without recognizing him. Omar and his security detachment had stopped at a local mosque to say their afternoon prayers. As they were finishing, several pickup trucks and Humvees carrying Afghan and U.S. soldiers pulled up to the mosque and the Afghans went in to pray. Mullah Omar told his men to hide their weapons and not to react. He then led the newcomers in prayer.

"Bin Laden could also give his enemies an opening because, rather than lying low, he seems eager to gamble by taking the fight to them. Al Qaeda is believed to be behind recent attacks in Turkey and Saudi Arabia. And Qaeda terrorists may have tried to kill Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf with a bomb last week, missing his car by seconds. Al-Zawahiri, in the latest video aired by Al-Jazeera on Friday, warned of new attacks. Yet such operations�which require wide networks of operatives, one of whom might be interested in a $25 million reward�could provide intelligence-gathering opportunities to Western agents."

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