The war in Lebanon

The Belmont Club:

...

It's manifestly clear that the current conflict is not a war on Lebanon. It is a war in Lebanon by outside powers over the central political issue in the Middle East: Israel's right to exist. That fact, which has become so nakedly apparent that even the Israeli Left -- indeed Olmert's government is a coalition with the Israeli Left -- cannot avoid staring it in the face, makes this conflict different from the border clashes of the recent past.

...
While it is indeed a war over Israel's right to exist, all her wars have been over that issue. Unlike some in the past, there was never a chance that Hezballah might succeed with its stated objective of destroying Israel. While Hezballah and media types will no doubt try to spin what ever end there is to this war as a victory, it will not change the facts on the ground, that Hezballah was really incapable of any offensive punch that would threaten Israel's existence. In the end, whatever is left of Hezballah will be less than there was when the war began. It's missile threat that Iarn has been counting on to deter Israel has been shown to be virtually impotent to date. In firing nearly two thousand missiles, Hezballah has somehow manage to not make any significant hit on an Isreali military unit, other than a ship that had its defenses to missile threats tuned off.

Hezballah has attempted to spin Israels departure from Bint Jbail as some sort of victory, but a look at the place by the Fox News team today does not suggest a Hezballah win, unless they are real proud of rubble in what used to be a town of 20,000. So far, Hezballah's best offensive has been showing victim pictures from Qana. I suspect that Hezballah has been hoping for pictures like that for days but the staging is looking weird right now to people other than Robert Fisk.

The mask of deniability between the Lebanonese government and Hezballah is also slipping. This may not be a good thing, but getting the truth out where it can be dealt with is always better. Israel's main concern in the end game should be what is left of Hezballah putting on the Lebanon army uniform and giving the army their remaining weapons. If that is the case, they may have only won transparency.

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