ISIS to switch to insurgency operations

Washington Times:

The Islamic State command is calling for a big shift in battlefield tactics to guerrilla warfare, acknowledging that the U.S.-led coalition’s precise air campaign is methodically picking apart its clustered forces.

A retired U.S. Army infantryman told The Washington Times that the new tactics may well be preparation for a metamorphosis. Islamic State will transform itself from an occupation force defending territory to an insurgency trying to undermine the authority of the governments of Iraq and Syria.

The marching orders are contained in the Islamic State’s authoritative Al-Naba publication, which regularly releases guidance to fighters trying to retain the terrorist army’s weakening hold on land and people.

Islamic State terrorists have been in retreat for months. The predominantly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces — advised by American special operations forces and guided by blanket aerial surveillance — have taken large swaths of territory and liberated almost all of Raqqa, Islamic State’s proclaimed capital in central Syria. With Syrian government forces besieging the city on another front, an SDF military commander this week told The Associated Press that the fight to retake Raqqa was “in its final stages.”

The Al-Naba directive is headlined, “How Do We Fight Under the Watchful Eye of the Crusader Planes?” according to a translation by the Middle East Media Research Institute, which monitors jihadi media.

The article discloses a purported American/coalition tactic: The allies fire randomly to prompt Islamic State fighters to return bullets, which surveillance aircraft spot to pinpoint enemy positions. It also notes the role of ground spotters who conduct reconnaissance to find the exact GPS coordinates to call in air bombardment.

U.S. Central Command said it believes the coalition has killed thousands of Islamic State fighters.

The Islamic State publication said a big mistake for its fighters has been to try to hold territory using fortified stagnant positions, which make for easy air targets. The new orders tell followers to return to guerrilla-type warfare, staying on the move to ambush the allies while evading aerial detection.
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This looks like an admission that the caliphate cannot defend its claimed territory.  The change in tactics means the US and its allies will concentrate on intercepting enemy communication and attacking their attempts to move to contact.  It will probably require more patrols by coalition forces.