Syria and Russian back forces falter in attack on ISIS last redoubt

Jamestown.org:

The advance into the oil and natural gas–rich northeastern Syrian province of Deir el-Zour by forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad and supported by Russian bombing sorties has been heralded by the Kremlin as “a very important strategic victory.” The besieged provincial capital of Deir el-Zour was relieved by September 5. Russian sappers built a 210-meter floating bridge over the Euphrates, and pro-al-Assad forces established a bridgehead on the north side of the river in an apparent attempt to capture oil and natural gas fields before they could be occupied by elements of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF—a militia alliance, including Arab and Kurdish fighters, backed by the United States). SDF fighters, together with US Special Forces moved into Deir el-Zour province following the left (northern) bank of the Euphrates, while pro-al-Assad forces, supported by the Russians, were moving in the same direction following the right (southern) bank of the river. Clearing out the Islamic State (IS) and taking over the entire province of Deir el-Zour is seen in Moscow as an essential step on the way to full victory—restoring the rule of the al-Assad government over the entire country (see EDM, September 28).

After the initial successes, the push by pro-al-Assad and Russian forces through the Syrian desert into Deir el-Zour ran into serious trouble in late September. IS fighters continue to hold parts of Deir el-Zour city and are resisting attempts by pro-al-Assad forces to expand their zone of control to other parts of the province. Mobile IS attack columns have been harassing the extended supply connection through the desert from Palmira to Deir el-Zour, reportedly inflicting serious casualties (Vz.ru, October 10). Footage of two Russians taken captive during a counteroffensive by IS forces in Deir el-Zour province were posted on the Internet by the terrorist group. The two were identified as contract fighters (“Cossacks”), reportedly employed by the notorious private military company (known in Russia as a Chastnye Voennie Companiy—ChVK) “Vagner,” which has been involved in combat operations in the Donbas region of Ukraine on the side of Moscow-backed rebels and in Syria. Both Russian prisoners were apparently executed by IS fighters (Novaya Gazeta, October 5).

The Russian military boasted that the relentless aerial bombing campaign by the Aerospace Forces (Vozdushno-Kosmicheskye Sily—VKS) “smashed the economic infrastructure of ISIS [Islamic State of Iraq and Syria—a former name for the Islamic State] in Syria, and the terrorists cannot extract or sell contraband oil,” according to defense ministry spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov. He added, “They [IS] cannot finance the procurement of arms and munitions or the recruitment of fighters; the Syrian army with the help of the VKS will surely smash ISIS in Deir el-Zour” (Militarynews.ru, October 10).

The oil revenues from Deir el-Zour that the VKS reportedly denied the Islamic State could prop up al-Assad’s government and somewhat relieve the financial burden on Moscow and Tehran, which have been sustaining the Syrian regime with money, troops and a constant flow of supplies. It has also been reported that the Russian company Euro Polis signed an agreement with Damascus to help free and guard terrorist-controlled oil and natural gas installations “in exchange for a quarter of future profits.” The al-Assad government apparently also promised to pay in advance Euro Polis’ expenses for freeing the Syrian oil and gas installations. Euro Polis has an office in Damascus and has allegedly solicited the services of ChVK “Vagner.” Euro Polis is supposedly owned by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a Russian businessman from St. Petersburg and Vladimir Putin’s personal chef (Novaya Gazeta, October 5).

Igor Strelkov (Girkin)—the former commander of pro-Russia rebels in Donbas—posted a report quoting former “colleagues from the Donbas fighting” who are now with ChVK “Vagner” that in the last two weeks up to a hundred Russians have been killed in Syria, mostly in Deir el-Zour. Many more were apparently wounded. Most of the casualties have been mercenaries connected with ChVK “Vagner” (Newsader.com, October 11). Other reports confirm the heavy involvement of ChVK “Vagner” in fighting in Syria as well as the serious Russian losses during the recent IS counteroffensive. On September 23, the commander of the 5th Army in the Eastern Military District, Lieutenant General Valery Asapov, was reportedly killed in Deir el-Zour by mortar fire. The commander of the 61st Marines Brigade of the Northern Fleet, Colonel Velery Fedyanin, was wounded in Syria and later died in a hospital in Moscow (Novaya Gazeta, October 9).
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Most of the ISIS leadership fled Raqqa which is under assault by US forces and took cover in Deir el-Zour.  It looks like Syria and Russia are both running low on funds to fight their part of the war against ISIS, although the Russians are clearly spending heavily on their air attacks.   Russian mercenaries are a part of the ground forces that have run into trouble as they moved in to help seize the oil and gas facilities.  Many have been killed and some have been captured and then executed by ISIS.

They probably used a raiding size force, which was not large enough to occupy the space they were trying to control.  Syria's army has been running on fumes for some time and the Russian commitment has been largely a contribution of air attacks.  I suspect they were also short of the armor and artillery needed for combined arms operation.