Threats aimed at Israel because of Jerusalem not likely to result in action

Tom Rogan:

In recent days, the leaders of Iran's Revolutionary Guard external action force, Hezbollah, and Hamas have all pledged to retake Jerusalem from Israel.

It's not going to happen.

Amidst the growing likelihood of regional war, these threats cannot be considered idle. Working together, Israel's enemies could create havoc in its southern and northern border areas proximate to Gaza, Syria, and Lebanon. In addition, Iran has the missile capabilities to strike deep inside Israeli territory.

Fortunately, however, Israel's capabilities far exceed those of its adversaries.

For a start, it would be nearly impossible for an Iranian-led alliance to invade Israeli territory and reach Jerusalem. The Israeli Defense Forces retain a dominant position in being able to block all lines of approach to Jerusalem. At the same time, because of dramatically improved relations between Israel, Egypt, and Jordan, any attack on Jerusalem would have to come from Lebanese or Syrian territory.

That poses another problem for Israel's adversaries.

After all, when it comes to Syria, the IDF sits in a permanent overwatch position in the Golan Heights. That position would allow Israeli forces to use direct and indirect fire artillery and air power to smash any invading columns with relative impunity. Similarly, because of a forward-looking IDF posture along the Lebanese border, its forces there would quickly be able to render any invading force as militarily incapable.

Correspondingly, the only remaining realistic option for Iran and co. would be a three-pronged approach to fray Israeli territory and attempt to force the Israeli government to make concessions on Jerusalem. Such a strategy would probably involve simultaneous rocket fire from Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon and Hamas/Islamic Jihad forces in Gaza. At the same time, Iran might use Syrian territory as a launchpad with which to deploy its ballistic missiles against Israeli cities.

To be sure, such an attack would cause Israeli casualties and force the IDF into high tempo operations.
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The attacks would give Israel a good excuse to destroy the attackers.  Israel would no longer be restrained from taking out Iran's nuclear program and the missiles Iran has given Hezballah.  All three of the likely participants have been weakened by either previous fights with Israel or the casualties suffered by Iran and Hezballah in the Syrian civil war.  Israel would be a much tougher adversary that the rebels in Syria.

Iran has also overreached in Yemen further weakening its clout.